Issue #19
Where are the grown-ups?
I had one rule for writing on LinkedIn: avoid politics. Well… rules are made to be broken. Where are they? Our politicians?
Growing up in France, we are taught Winston Churchill’s quote in school: “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” In theory, we elect representatives whose role is to dialog (literally ‘confront logics’), maybe even energetically, until they can arrive at a common vision for our society. We may be more or less happy with it, but since it represents the majority’s view, we get on with our lives.
Today, it is hard to spot the politicians. I will focus on France, as it is the example I know best. But from what I see in the press, we are not the only democracy in this mess!
Next Monday, our government will likely fall. Again. The 577 deputies cannot agree on a plan to reduce our 1 600 Bn€ of spending by a mere 40 Bn€… Some want to cut it in half, others want to ditch the idea altogether. Really? Are they serious?
Wearing my former “Mr Finance” hat
We have not had a budget at equilibrium for decades. Any householder knows you cannot spend more than your salary month after month, or it will hurt. In theory, government spending should be ‘contra-cyclical’, i.e. higher during down-times (with a temporary deficit) and lower during good times (with a temporary credit that helps pay back the down-times’ debt). We are in good times with a 142 Bn€ deficit… The plan should be to reduce spending by at least 142 Bn€! Not the mere 40 Bn€ they have been fighting over for a year now. Either our deputies are criminally incompetent, or their focus on the political fighting has made them forget they are elected for our common good. Either way, they are unfortunately not worthy of the honour of their position.
Now, there is a situation in which a bank will lend you way more than your salary: if you invest (in a house, a business, an infrastructure…). The issue is not only the debt level per se (120% of GDP), but how we are spending the money!
For climate change alone, France needs an additional 82 Bn€ of investments per year (that is twice the 40 Bn€ they are fighting over). And we will also need money for biodiversity, water, adaptation, etc. Half of our houses are falling thanks to clay shrinking. According to the EU, the time to change our agriculture is now. We could list the examples…
That is a lot of money. However, France (and Europe) are actually part of the lucky countries with sufficient savings to finance the needed transition. If we show creditors we can reduce our spending to a sustainable level, we will be able to finance the investments needed to survive the coming decades. But creditors lend to grownups who actually have passed Math 101…
Wearing my newish “Mr Green” hat
The political noise is all about savings, immigration, inflation, etc. Our politicians are answering the wrong questions! What life do we want to live in the coming years?
Wars killed 233 597 people last year (ACLED). That was one of the record years since the end of the Cold War, and 233 597 too many. According to WHO estimates, climate change is killing at least another 250 000 people, and pollution a whopping 7 million people! And these numbers are rising fast! All these topics are interrelated; they are dramatic symptoms of a system longing for change: after decades of inaction, adaptation has become survival!
OK, these numbers are global and may not hit home. Let’s go with a simple example: I grew up in Corsica, a beautiful island in the Mediterranean. Sunny and warm… with good food, incredible mountains, and wildfires every summer. For decades, we heard the same demand from firefighters: “we need more planes”. Demand was so high for those planes that Bombardier actually stopped production in 2015 and only restarted it in 2023. With larger and wilder fires every year, our leaders spent years bickering rather than ordering planes. Now, they realise it will actually take time to take delivery…
In one of his recent posts, the very serious Fabrice Bonnifet concluded that “when incompetence in power is a fact, revolution becomes a right.” The angry part of me can only agree. But I hate violence. More fighting will just bring more deaths. What we need is more dialog and collaboration. Now.
We need to ask our politicians to focus on the one question that will make our lives better: what is the world we want to live in tomorrow? The rest is noise.
Conclusion
The “triangle of inaction” describes how governments, citizens, and organisations collectively fail to address crises. Governments delay action due to political calculations; citizens feel powerless; and organisations wait for clear mandates or funding. This mutual avoidance worsens problems, as each group expects another to take the lead.
Today, it seems a very large minority (if not a majority) of citizens are ready to act. Organisations may need to be reassured, but many are moving, if only to try to take a competitive lead. So proactive governments have an opportunity to break this triangle of inaction! And join ‘The Makers of Change’ :)
As usual, this letter, originally published on LinkedIn, is meant to open a discussion: join it here.
Lenny Kessler